Probably Not – Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
Book 1
Book 2
Book 3
Book 1
Book 2
Book 3
Book 1
Book 2
Book 3
Book 1
Book 2
Book 3
Home > Mathematics and Science Textbooks > Mathematics > Probability and statistics > Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference

Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference


     0     
5
4
3
2
1



Out of Stock


Notify me when this book is in stock
X
About the Book

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.

Table of Contents:
Introduction. 1. An Introduction to Probability. Predicting The Future. Rule Making. Random Events and Probability. The Lottery {Very Improbable Events and Large Data Sets}. Coin Flipping {Fair Games, Looking Backwards For Insight}. The Coin Flip Strategy That Can’t Lose. The Prize Behind The Door {Looking Backwards For Insight, Again}. The Checker Board {Dealing With Only Part Of The Data Set}. 2. Probability Distribution Functions And Some Basics. The Probability Distribution Function. Averages And Weighted Averages. Expected Values. The Basic Coin Flip Game. The Standard Deviation. The Cumulative Distribution Function. The Confidence Interval. Final Points. 3. Building a Bell. 4. Random Walks. The One Dimensional Random Walk. What Probability Really Means. Diffusion. 5. Life Insurance and Social Security. Insurance as Gambling. Life Tables. Birth Rates and Population Stability. Life Tables, Again. Premiums. Social Security - Sooner Or Later?. 6. Binomial Probabilities. The Binomial Probability Formula. Permutations And Combinations. Large Number Approximations. The Poisson Distribution. Disease Clusters. Clusters. 7. Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulations. Pseudorandom Numbers. The Middle Square PSNG. The Linear Congruential PSNG. A Normal Distribution Generator. An Arbitrary Distribution Generator. Monte Carlo Simulations. A League Of Our Own. 8. Some Gambling Games In Detail. The Basic Coin Flip Game. The Gantt Chart. The Ultimate "Winning Strategy". The Game Show. Parimutuel Betting. 9. Traffic Lights And Traffic. Outsmarting A Traffic Light?. Many Lights And Many Cars. Simulating Traffic Flow - The Simulation. Simulation Results. 10. Combined And Conditional Probabilities. Functional Notation. Conditional Probability. Medical Test Results. The Shared Birthday Problem. 11. Scheduling And Waiting. Scheduling Appointments In The Doctor’s Office. Lunch With A Friend. Waiting For A Bus. 12. Stock Market Portfolios. 13. Benford, Parrondo and Simpson. Benford’s Law. Parrondo’s Paradox. Simpson’s Paradox. 14. Networks, Infectious Disease Propagation and Chain Letters. Degrees Of Separation. Propagation Along Networks. Some Other Uses Of Networks. Neighborhood Chains. 15. Bird Counting. A Walk In The Woods. A Model Of Bird Flying Habits. Spotting A Bird. Putting It All Together. 16. Statistical Mechanics And Heat. Statistical Mechanics. Thermodynamics. 17. Introduction To Statistical Analysis. Sampling. Sample Distributions and Standard Deviations. Estimating Population Average From A Sample. The Student-T Distribution. Polling Statistics. Did A Sample Come From A Given Population?. 18. Chaos and Quanta. Chaos. Probability In Quantum Mechanics.

About the Author :
Lawrence N. Dworsky, PhD, is a former corporate research lab director at Motorola, Inc., where he was also a member of the Science Advisory Board. He has also served as a consultant to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Littelfuse Corp., and HRL Laboratories, LLC. A Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Dr. Dworsky has held academic positions at Columbia University, Northern Illinois University, and Florida Atlantic University.

Review :
"The book is a very good tool for students and specialists in different areas who do not like advanced statistics, but are obliged to understand, a least partly, the process of decision making." (International Statistical Review, December 2008) "The fact that Dworsky uses examples from many fields, and discusses topics not usually covered in beginning course, may also increase student interest in pursuing statistics at a more advanced level." (MAA Reviews, July 2008)


Best Sellers


Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9780470282052
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • Publisher Imprint: Wiley-Interscience
  • Height: 250 mm
  • No of Pages: 328
  • Sub Title: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
  • Width: 150 mm
  • ISBN-10: 0470282053
  • Publisher Date: 01 Apr 2008
  • Binding: Digital online
  • Language: English
  • Spine Width: 15 mm
  • Weight: 666 gr


Similar Products

Add Photo
Add Photo

Customer Reviews

REVIEWS      0     
Click Here To Be The First to Review this Product
Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
John Wiley & Sons Inc -
Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference
Writing guidlines
We want to publish your review, so please:
  • keep your review on the product. Review's that defame author's character will be rejected.
  • Keep your review focused on the product.
  • Avoid writing about customer service. contact us instead if you have issue requiring immediate attention.
  • Refrain from mentioning competitors or the specific price you paid for the product.
  • Do not include any personally identifiable information, such as full names.

Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference

Required fields are marked with *

Review Title*
Review
    Add Photo Add up to 6 photos
    Would you recommend this product to a friend?
    Tag this Book Read more
    Does your review contain spoilers?
    What type of reader best describes you?
    I agree to the terms & conditions
    You may receive emails regarding this submission. Any emails will include the ability to opt-out of future communications.

    CUSTOMER RATINGS AND REVIEWS AND QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TERMS OF USE

    These Terms of Use govern your conduct associated with the Customer Ratings and Reviews and/or Questions and Answers service offered by Bookswagon (the "CRR Service").


    By submitting any content to Bookswagon, you guarantee that:
    • You are the sole author and owner of the intellectual property rights in the content;
    • All "moral rights" that you may have in such content have been voluntarily waived by you;
    • All content that you post is accurate;
    • You are at least 13 years old;
    • Use of the content you supply does not violate these Terms of Use and will not cause injury to any person or entity.
    You further agree that you may not submit any content:
    • That is known by you to be false, inaccurate or misleading;
    • That infringes any third party's copyright, patent, trademark, trade secret or other proprietary rights or rights of publicity or privacy;
    • That violates any law, statute, ordinance or regulation (including, but not limited to, those governing, consumer protection, unfair competition, anti-discrimination or false advertising);
    • That is, or may reasonably be considered to be, defamatory, libelous, hateful, racially or religiously biased or offensive, unlawfully threatening or unlawfully harassing to any individual, partnership or corporation;
    • For which you were compensated or granted any consideration by any unapproved third party;
    • That includes any information that references other websites, addresses, email addresses, contact information or phone numbers;
    • That contains any computer viruses, worms or other potentially damaging computer programs or files.
    You agree to indemnify and hold Bookswagon (and its officers, directors, agents, subsidiaries, joint ventures, employees and third-party service providers, including but not limited to Bazaarvoice, Inc.), harmless from all claims, demands, and damages (actual and consequential) of every kind and nature, known and unknown including reasonable attorneys' fees, arising out of a breach of your representations and warranties set forth above, or your violation of any law or the rights of a third party.


    For any content that you submit, you grant Bookswagon a perpetual, irrevocable, royalty-free, transferable right and license to use, copy, modify, delete in its entirety, adapt, publish, translate, create derivative works from and/or sell, transfer, and/or distribute such content and/or incorporate such content into any form, medium or technology throughout the world without compensation to you. Additionally,  Bookswagon may transfer or share any personal information that you submit with its third-party service providers, including but not limited to Bazaarvoice, Inc. in accordance with  Privacy Policy


    All content that you submit may be used at Bookswagon's sole discretion. Bookswagon reserves the right to change, condense, withhold publication, remove or delete any content on Bookswagon's website that Bookswagon deems, in its sole discretion, to violate the content guidelines or any other provision of these Terms of Use.  Bookswagon does not guarantee that you will have any recourse through Bookswagon to edit or delete any content you have submitted. Ratings and written comments are generally posted within two to four business days. However, Bookswagon reserves the right to remove or to refuse to post any submission to the extent authorized by law. You acknowledge that you, not Bookswagon, are responsible for the contents of your submission. None of the content that you submit shall be subject to any obligation of confidence on the part of Bookswagon, its agents, subsidiaries, affiliates, partners or third party service providers (including but not limited to Bazaarvoice, Inc.)and their respective directors, officers and employees.

    Accept

    Fresh on the Shelf


    Inspired by your browsing history


    Your review has been submitted!

    You've already reviewed this product!