About the Book
This volume presents a rigorous account of quantitative forecasting efforts that led to the successful resolution of the Johns-Manville asbestos litigation. This case, taking 12 years to reach settlement, may generate over one million claims at a total nominal value of tens of billions of dollars. The forecasting task, to project the number, timing, and nature of claims for asbestos-related injuries from an unknown number of exposed persons, is a general problem. The models in this volume can be adapted to forecast industry-wide asbestos liability, as well as liability for other products and other insurable or compensable events. The volume illustrates the iterative nature of model building and the uncertainty due to incomplete knowledge of the processes of injury and litigation.The volume is written for actuaries, biostatisticians, demographers, epidemiologists, statisticians and analysts of problems in environmental health, finance, industrial risk, investment, occupational health, and product liability.
Although statistics, calculus, and matrix algebra are used, the logic behind the quantitative analysis is explained so that readers without specialized quantitative skills can understand why and how specific methods are used. This volume will be an indispensable reference for lawyers, judges, and all whose work involves these topics.The Honorable Jack B. Weinstein, senior U.S. District Court judge in the Eastern District of New York, commissioned Professor Margaret Berger and the authors of this book as neutral experts in the Manville case. He and Professor Berger are widely known for promoting the use of science in law. His foreword sets the context for this book.Eric Stallard, A.S.A., M.A.A.A., F.C.A., is Research Professor and Associate Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University. He is a Fellow of the Conference of Consulting Actuaries, a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and an Associate of the Society of Actuaries. He chairs the American Academy of Actuaries' State and Federal Long Term Care Task Forces and is an elected member of the Society of Actuaries? Long Term Care Insurance Section Council.
His research interests include modeling and forecasting for medical demography and health/long-term care actuarial practice. He won the 1996 National Institute on Aging�s James A. Shannon Director�s Award.Kenneth G. Manton, Ph.D., is Research Professor and Scientific Director of the Center for Demographic Studies, Medical Research Professor in the Department of Community and Family Medicine, and Senior Fellow of the Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development, at Duke University. His research interests include human aging, mortality, and chronic disease. He won the 1990 Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography of the Population Association of America, the 1991 Allied-Signal Inc. Achievement Award in Aging administered by the Johns Hopkins Center on Aging, and the 2000 M. Irene Ferrer Award of the Partnership for Women�s Health at Columbia University.Joel E. Cohen, Ph.D., Dr. P.H., heads the Laboratory of Populations, at Rockefeller and Columbia Universities.
His awards include: MacArthur Foundation Prize Fellow, Guggenheim Fellow, Tyler World Prize for Environmental Achievement, Mercer Award of the Ecological Society of America, Sheps Award of the Population Association of America, Nordberg Prize of the Population Council, Soper Prize of the Pan American Health Organization, and Distinguished Statistical Ecologist Award of the Sixth International Congress of Ecology. He serves on the national governing boards of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Nature Conservancy.
Table of Contents:
1 Overview.- 2 Epidemiology of Asbestos-Related Diseases.- 3 Forecasts Based on Direct Estimates of Exposure.- 4 Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure.- 5 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates.- 6 Updated Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure.- 7 Uncertainty in Updated Forecasts.- 8 Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model.- 9 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model.- 10 Conclusions and Implications.- References.
About the Author :
Kenneth G. Manton, Ph.D. is Research Professor, Research Director, and Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University, and Medical Research Professor at Duke University Medical Center's Department of Community and Family Medicine. Dr. Manton is also a Senior Fellow of the Duke University Medical Center's Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development. His research interests include mathematical models of human aging, mortality, and chronic disease. He was the 1990 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1991 he received the Allied-Signal Inc. Achievement Award in Aging administered by the Johns Hopkins Center on Aging. Joel E. Cohen, Ph.D., Dr. P.H., is Professor of Population, and Head of the Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University. He also is Professor of Populations at Columbia University. His research interests include the demography, ecology, epidemiology, and social organization of human and non-human populations, and related mathematical concepts. In 1981, he was elected Fellow of the MacArthur and Guggeneheim Foundations. He was the 1992 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1994, he received the Distinguished Statistical Ecologist Award at the Sixth International Congress of Ecology.
Review :
From the reviews: "This monograph shows then epidemiological prediction in action and is more eloquent than most textbooks as regards to methodology and difficulties encountered with field data. It should interest far outside the circle of asbestos-related epidemiology because of its rigorous exposition, the relevance of its questions, the adequacy of the solutions offered, the discussion of its results, and its legal, financial, and human consequences." Mathematical Population Studies, 12:181-182, 2005 "Over 750,000 claimants have filed suit ... for illnesses and deaths related to exposure to asbestos, and at least 65 companies had been driven to bankruptcy; these numbers continue to grow. ... This work led to substantial advances in the art of forecasting the number, timing, and nature of new claims. The authors present a lucid explanation of these advances and a description of how the matters in litigation have been settled. The presiding judge, Jack Weinstein, has contributed an informative preface ... ." (J.C. Bailar, Short Book Reviews Publication of the International Statistical Institute, Vol. 25 (1), 2005) "Demographers Eric Stallard, Kenneth Manton and Joel Cohen use a risk assessment framework to estimate the numbers of claims expected during the period between 1990 and 2049 for asbestos-related disease among men exposed to ... asbestos products. ... Forecasting Product Liability Claims is notable for its illustration of the possibility of using epidemiologic and demographic methods to develop models for broad policy purposes. ... It is formula-rich and dense in its description of data sources and the machinery of the models, as it should be." (Jonathan M. Samet, Science-AAAS, May, 2006) "This book summarizes the statistical models for projecting the number, timing, and nature of future claims, and it discusses how these predictions are used in developing a fair and equitable distribution of insufficient funds. ... This book provides a fascinating account of how predication models are used to solve a very-real problem. It makes wonderful reading for statisticians interested in prediction problems, epidemiologists, actuaries, and lawyers involved in product liability suits and having to predict the number of possible litigants." (Johannes Ledolter, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1099 (1), 2007)
