Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity: Schumpeter's Long Cycle Reconsidered

With the economic problems facing Western economics during the last decade, theories about an alleged forty-five to sixty years' pulsation in economic life (the Kondratieff-Schumpeter cycle) have experienced a remarkable renaissance. In a survey of a literature the present book draws attention to some early Dutch studies of long waves which have been discovered recently in the archives of the University of Amsterdan: the disucssion between Josef A. Schumpeter and Simon Kuznets on clusters of innovations and long waves in economic life is also reviewed. The essential points of this old controversy are still questioned today: do long waves exist at all? Are they statistical fact or artefact? Is there any empirical evidence of Schumpeter's clustering of major innovations as a driving force behind the long waves in economic life? And why should such a clustering occur? Based on a new econometric test method, the author argues that new waves can be identified not only in price series but also in the aggregate output of a number of key industrialized countries. The authors's own research corroborates Schumpeter's hypothesis that, far from being caused by a flash of genius, radical innovations occur in clusters, interacting with economic fluctuations and social change. Beside fluctuations in the rate of innovations, there are also important shifts in the ratio of product to process innovations. In developing his conclusions the author is able to respond to academic criticism of his earlier work on long waves.

Table of Contents:
Part 1 The long wave - a real phonomenon?: testing long waves; appendix a details about testing long waves. Part 2 Long waves in radical innovations?: introductory remarks; basic innovations, radically new products, major innovations - an assessment of recent research; key and master patents in the long run - evidence from Baker's data; appendix B details about Baker's data; R&D, patenting and new research laboratories in a long wave context; putting things together. Part 3 Innovation and growth patterns in the post-war upswing: introductory remarks; a shift from products to process innovation during the post-war upswing?; appendix C details about classification of teh Gellman data; radical innovations, follow-through innovations and growth - the example of West German industry; pateting, investment and employment - a cross-section test for Dutch manufacturing industry.