War Scare: Russia and America on the Nuclear Brink

Why do some American intelligence officials maintain fallout shelters and private contingency plans to evacuate their families in the event of a Russian nuclear strike—even in today's post-Cold War era of U.S.-Russian partnership? The frightening answer lies within the pages of War Scare, a terrifying assessment of the prospect for nuclear holocaust in our day. Written by Peter Vincent Pry, a former CIA military analyst, War Scare provides a history of our country's little-known brushes with nuclear war and warns that, contrary to popular opinion and the assurances of our political leaders, the possibility of a Russian attack still exists. Nuclear deterrence has been the foundation of Western security for the last 50 years, but since the end of the Cold War, Russian military doctrine has become more destabilizing, and much more dangerous, than is commonly believed. By making use of a wealth of declassified and unclassified material, Dr. Pry illustrates how Russia's brutal past continues to shape the consciousness and decision making of its leaders, many of whom are unreconstructed ideologues from the old Soviet regime. Gripped by a perpetual perception of imminent threat—a war scare—the Russian General Staff, which controls the technical capability of launching a nuclear strike, has shown itself to be unstable at best. The author explores recent history and near-disasters such as the Bosnian crisis, the Norway missile incident, and U.S. air strikes on Iraq from the perspective of the Russian General Staff, believing that only by understanding their viewpoint can we minimize the risk of unintentionally provoking a deadly attack. Wary of NATO expansion and reeling from the Russian economy's descent into chaos, the General Staff may interpret Western military exercises and operations in the Middle East and elsewhere as concealing surprise aggression against Russia. This is a grave situation, indeed, as even after the START I, II, and III agreements, Russia will retain enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world—not to mention significantly expanded chemical and biological warfare capability. War Scare convincingly shows that we ignore these facts at our peril.

Table of Contents:
Introduction The Missiles of November: ABLE ARCHER 83, November 2-11, 1983 August Coup: The Fall of the Soviet Empire, August 19-21, 1991 The Armenian Crisis, May 1992 The October Coup, September 21-October 4, 1993 Northern Lights: The Norwegian Missile Crisis, January 25, 1995 The Future? Selected Sources Index

About the Author :
PETER VINCENT PRY, formerly with the CIA, is currently a professional military advisor to the U.S. House of Representatives on national security issues./e In an award honoring his years of service, the CIA stated: A noted expert in his field, Dr. Pry conducted groundbreaking research that illuminated one of the most important issues of our time, the U.S.-Soviet nuclear competition. On the vanguard of strategic intelligence analysis during the Cold War, he developed much of what the U.S. government knows about Soviet planning for nuclear war, including Soviet views of the character of war, perceptions of U.S. intentions, assessment of the nuclear balance, and operational plans. In the post-Cold War period, his work has been central to the U.S. government's understanding of evolving Russian threat perceptions and military doctrine, and the construction of new paradigms for strategic warning and stability assessments. He lives in Annandale, Virginia.

Review :
"A cogent and informed assessment of how close the West came to nuclear war with the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and how, contrary to general belief the danger persists....[Pry's] insight into the minds of the Russian General Staff and his concerns about Western misunderstanding of it are important and salutary."-Kirkus Reviews "Pry...presents a hair-raising picture of the Soviet Union and of today's Russian Republic, where, since the 1980s, policies toward the U.S. have been shaped by the fear of a surprise nuclear attack....His conclusion [is] that current U.S. approaches to Russia are based more on hope than reality."-Publishers Weekly ?A cogent and informed assessment of how close the West came to nuclear war with the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and how, contrary to general belief the danger persists....[Pry's] insight into the minds of the Russian General Staff and his concerns about Western misunderstanding of it are important and salutary.?-Kirkus Reviews ?Pry...presents a hair-raising picture of the Soviet Union and of today's Russian Republic, where, since the 1980s, policies toward the U.S. have been shaped by the fear of a surprise nuclear attack....His conclusion [is] that current U.S. approaches to Russia are based more on hope than reality.?-Publishers Weekly ?Pry's accounts of five war scares since 1983 and his review of the profound internal crisis in Russia are not for the faint of heart....His book reminds us that Russia's nuclear force poses a genuine threat to U.S. national security far into the 21st century....A valuable book.?-Library Journal "Pry's accounts of five war scares since 1983 and his review of the profound internal crisis in Russia are not for the faint of heart....His book reminds us that Russia's nuclear force poses a genuine threat to U.S. national security far into the 21st century....A valuable book."-Library Journal