End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration

A brilliant new theory of how society works from one of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power? For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result- a ground-breaking account of how society works. The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now. But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future- an escape from the patterns of the past.

About the Author :
Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, he is now working in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. Currently his main research effort is directed at coordinating CrisisDB, a massive historical database of societies sliding into a crisis - and then emerging from it. His books include Ultrasociety and Ages of Discord.

Review :
The book that most opinion formers will be forming opinions about From the man who predicted the rise of Trump - or someone very like him - a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing Game of Thrones-style intra-elite conflict meets big data A compelling analysis of why societies fail. . . Turchin's theory represents the most persuasive analysis of the historical forces assailing society in the present Surveying the rise and fall of empires and parliaments through global history, Turchin argues that civic upheavals become due when “popular immiseration” (eg, the stagnancy of real wages) is combined with “elite overproduction” A pre-eminent digital-age seer. . . Turchin set out to discover statistical patterns in the great flood of historical data that might predict future instabilities in societies. . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure A lucid and elegant theory that is stable across time and place in the manner of natural laws and scientific findings The future-gazing guru I find the most intriguing is a former biologist called Peter Turchin who calls this decade 'the turbulent twenties'. . . He is a complexity scientist who has many fans among rich and powerful people Has any book published this year had a more appropriate title? Everything is going wrong. You don’t have to buy Peter Turchin’s eccentric theory that history moves in 50-year cycles to find his analysis of the chaos of our present moment compelling. He argues that extreme wealth inequality and “elite overproduction” are plunging society into disorder and violence Extraordinary. . . Turchin is a practitioner of "cliodynamics," an ambitious attempt to apply complexity theory and much else to human history. End Times is the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work Peter Turchin is among the most important writers for explaining why everything seems so unstable now. It's the end of a cycle. . . Essential reading Why is the world gripped by revolutions and civil wars? This provocative book blames the elites - we just have too many of them now It would be foolish for US leaders to ignore Turchin. If nothing else, the concept of elite overproduction is a good way to explain why elite education is now so costly, competitive and damaging for would-be elite kids and adults alike Across the west, popular misery and 'elite overproduction' are fuelling crisis, argues data-driven historian Peter Turchin. . . he provides a clear theory about how we got into this mess, and how to get out of it Mr Turchin is something of a celebrity in certain circles and has piqued economists' interest in the discipline of "cliodynamics", which uses maths to model historical change Drawing on big data for societies across time and space, Peter Turchin shows that periods of political instability are inevitable. . . Turchin's model suggests that the 2020s are unavoidably set to be a period of disintegration. . . but that we can avoid another, perhaps deeper, period of social breakdown later in the century "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable": so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable - by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book Turchin is the academic of the moment Scintillating. . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to A pioneering social scientist examines the roots of social problems and sees dark days looming ... a well-informed, disturbing assessment of where we are now