Disaster Deferred: How New Science Is Changing our View of Earthquake Hazards in the Midwest

Known as the New Madrid seismic zone, the Midwestern rift between two geologic plates on the continental US has led many people to believe in strong likelihood of an imminent and hugely destructive earthquake in the Midwest. After the San Francisco earthquake of 1905 the biggest and most damaging earthquake in US history was the one in New Madrid, Missouri in 1811-1812. This New Madrid story has been written about and debated for years in advanced scientific communications and in the popular media. Yet, there has never been an accurate and approachable telling of the real science and the hazard preparation policy that is warranted in light of the science. With the 200th anniversary of the New Madrid earthquake coming up in 2011 and numerous predictions of doom in the media there will be a lot of interest in this topic. After Hurricane Katrina the whole topic of disaster preparation has become a major issue in scientific media and the public eye. Seth Stein is THE author to tell this story. He is a major figure in US Geosicence and a leading seismologist. He was actively involved in doing the research on the New Madrid Rift Zone. He writes beautifully and has a knack for telling stories about how science is done - the give and take of different hypotheses and the scientific leg work to test these ideas all get a clear and engaging exposition in what the author calls a "Discover Magazine" style. How the science gets played out in a policy arena and how the media can distort sound science to create a good story are also important features of the book. Along the way this book presents a solid dose of real science - the basics of earthquake science and seismology are given a very lively treatment here all within the context of a fascinating tale that features science, history, psychology and public policy.

About the Author :
Seth Stein is Deering Professor of Geological Sciences at Northwestern University. He has received the James B. Macelwane Medal of the American Geophysical Union, the George P. Woollard Award of the Geological Society of America, and the Stephan Mueller Medal of the European Geosciences Union. He has also been elected a foreign member of the Academy of Europe and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union and Geological Society of America. He is a coauthor of a widely used seismology textbook, a former editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research, and the founder of Northwestern's Environmental Science program.

Review :
'Sacred cows make the best hamburger, ' as the saying goes. In Disaster Deferred, Seth Stein takes on one of the sacred cows of geology-the story of the Midwest's New Madrid fault-and argues that estimates of earthquake risk along the fault have been greatly exaggerated. Along the way, Stein gives readers a taste of what it is like to do science. He tells his tale with care, passion, and the kind of humor that seems just right for a geologist--crusty and bluff.--Jonathan Weiner, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Beak of the Finch: A Story of Evolution in Our Time Seth Stein thoughtfully recognizes the painful decisions that various politicians and emergency managers must make, and he provides realistic descriptions of various types of bureaucracies and scientific specialties, without rancor. A must-read for all involved in such issues.--Orrin Pilkey, Duke University, author of Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future A lot of books are written about disasters and potential disasters. Seth Stein's new book Disaster Deferred, is a different kind of book, which uses new scientific results to demonstrate that the dangers of a large earthquake in the Midwest are greatly overestimated. Seth writes in a highly entertaining style, and I frequently found myself laughing out loud. However, the facts are deadly serious and based on the latest results in earthquake science. I strongly recommend this book to anyone interested in earthquakes and their potential impact on society in North America.--Douglas Wiens "Washington University in St. Louis"