Rumbles of Thunder: Power Shifts and the Danger of Sino-American War

It is widely believed that shifts in the balance of power between an established hegemon and a rising upstart can lead to war. To what extent does this proposition hold true for Sino-American relations today? Steve Chan examines a range of international relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated risk of confrontation between the two powers. Probing the recent deterioration in Sino-American relations, he considers whether several factors that can raise or lower international tension apply to the current situation. Chan demonstrates that power shifts do not preordain violent outcomes—nor does their absence ensure peace. Criticizing overly mechanistic frameworks, he emphasizes that domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars happen. Chan demonstrates that claims of a “rising China” catching up to and even poised to overtake the United States are alarmist: American structural advantages will endure for some time to come. Contrary to prevailing narratives, China does not act like a revisionist power seeking to overturn the system, while the United States, far from defending the international order, has frequently undermined it. However, Chan cautions, Taiwan remains a flashpoint for a possible Sino-American conflict. Bringing together expertise in IR theory and keen political acumen, Rumbles of Thunder challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war between the United States and China.

Table of Contents:
Introduction 1. Power Shift Explains Better Worsening Sino-American Relations 2. Conceptual and Measurement Problems in Studying Power 3. Persistence of Washington’s Structural Power in U.S. Global Domination 4. Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy 5. Taiwan as a Possible Catalyst for Sino-American Conflict Conclusion Acknowledgments Notes Bibliography Index

About the Author :
Steve Chan is College Professor of Distinction Emeritus at the University of Colorado, Boulder. His many books include, most recently, Contesting Revisionism: China, the United States, and the Transformation of International Order (2021); Thucydides’s Trap? Historical Interpretation, Logic of Inquiry, and the Future of Sino-American Relations (2020); and Trust and Distrust in Sino-American Relations: Challenge and Opportunity (2017).

Review :
In this powerful book, Steve Chan debunks power transition theory that has framed the U.S.-China rivalry. With an unflinching and well-grounded critique of the key propositions that have informed policy debates in both countries, this book will force us to see U.S.-China competition in a different light. As Steve Chan eloquently argues in this book, recent power shifts have inclined Beijing and Washington to adjust their foreign policies, causing a deterioration in their bilateral relations. At a time of intensifying U.S.-China competition in world affairs, Rumbles of Thunder provides an essential logic to understand this rivalry. Challenging many dominant theories about U.S.-China relations, including in particular the “Thucydides Trap” narrative, Steve Chan’s Rumbles of Thunder offers a nuanced and insightful assessment of both the roots of U.S.-China rivalry and the prospects for future conflict between the two powers. A culmination of his decade-long research, Steve Chan’s book challenges the rhetoric about an impending U.S.-China power transition that contributes to misperception and abets a self-fulfilling prophecy of a coming war. A must-read for students of international relations. Steve Chan has written an insightful book on power shifts and the likelihood of war between the United States and China. Rumbles of Thunder challenges the conventional wisdom that exclusively prioritizes structural factors and brings back human agency and domestic politics in explaining great power conflicts. Rumbles of Thunder makes several remarkable contributions to the literature on Sino-American relations. It challenges the prevailing pessimistic view of the Thucydides trap, creatively elaborates on three concepts of power and uses them to explain the power dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and offers nuanced and sophisticated analyses of the Taiwan issue.