Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

Assembling a high profile group of scholars and practitioners, this book investigates the interplay of forecasting; warnings about, and responses to, known and unknown transnational risks. It challenges conventional accounts of 'failures' of warning and preventive policy in both the academic literature and public debate.

Table of Contents:
Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer PART I: FORECASTING HARM The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D.Omand Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J.Goldman Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V.Brummer , C.Burnley, H.Carlsen, A.Duta, B.Giegerich & R.Magoni Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F.Wagner Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T.Van Der Beken PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W.Shapcott Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D.Demeritt & S.Nobert Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S.Gerstein & E.H.Schein PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C.Crossin & J.Smither From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H.Rothstein, O.Borraz & M.Huber Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G.Tett Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F.Huertas Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H.Fishbein Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O.Meyer & C.De Franco

About the Author :
TOM VANDER BEKEN Professor at Ghent University, Belgium, and Director of the Institute for International Research on Criminal Policy (IRCP) OLIVIER BORRAZ Research Professor at the Center for the Sociology of Organizations at Sciences Po in Paris, France VILLE BRUMMER Head of R&D at Crisis Management Initiative, Helsinki, Finland CLEMENTINE BURNLEY Senior Project Manager at Adelphi Research HENRIK CARLSEN Deputy Research Director of the Division of Defence Analysis at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Sweden CORENE CROSSIN Employed at Control Risks' political risk consulting practice in Asia Pacific DAVID DEMERITT Professor of Geography, Convenor of the Hazards and Risk Group and Director of Graduate Studies at King's College London, UK ANA-MARIA DUTA Conflict Specialist at the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, the Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Italy WARREN H. FISHBEIN Coordinator at the Global Futures Forum (GFF) of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research in the U.S. Department of State, USA MARC S. GERSTEIN Head of MGA Ltd., USA, a management consulting firm, and is President of the Organization Design Forum BASTIAN GIEGERICH Senior Researcher at Bundeswehr Institute of Social Sciences, SOWI, Germany JAN GOLDMAN Teacher at the National Defense Intelligence College in Washington, DC, USA MICHAEL HUBER Professor for Higher Education Studies in the Faculty of Sociology and Director of the Institute of Science and Technology Studies at the University of Bielefeld, Germany THOMAS F. HUERTAS Vice Chairman of the Committee of European Banking Supervisors and Director, Banking Sector, Financial Services Authority, UK RAPHAËLE MAGONI Researcher on migration flows, the permeability of the EU external border and related security issues at the European Commission Joint Research Centre, Italy. SEBASTIEN NOBERT Post-doctoral Research Associate in the Risk and Hazards Group in the School of Social Science and Public Policy of the Department of Geography at King's College London, UK SIR DAVID OMAND GCB Visiting Professor in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, UK HENRY ROTHSTEIN Senior Lecturer in Risk Management and Deputy Director of the Centre for Risk Management at King's College London, UK ED SCHEIN Sloan Fellows Professor of Management Emeritus at the MIT Sloan School of Management, USA WILLIAM SHAPCOTT Director General for Personnel and Administration at the General Secretariat of the EU Council of Ministers JAMES SMITHER Director of Consulting Projects at Control Risks GILLIAN TETT Managing Editor of the US edition of the Financial Times, USA FABIAN WAGNER Senior Research Scholar at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.