Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

For a given electoral system, what average number and sizes of parties and government duration can we expect? Predicting Party Sizes is the first book to make specific predictions that agree with world averages. The basic factors are the numbers of seats in the assembly and in the average electoral district. While previous models tell us only the direction in which to change the electoral system, the present ones also tell us by how much they must be changed so as to obtain the desired change in average number of parties and cabinet duration. Hence, combined with known particularities of a country, they can be used for informed institutional design. The book is useful to three types of readers: political science students learning the basics of electoral systems and their political consequences; practitioners of politics who consider changing the electoral laws; and researchers intent on connecting electoral and party systems. The book is structured accordingly. Chapters start with advice and recipes for practicing politicians, in non-technical language. The main text gives students an overview of electoral systems, worldwide, and supplies evidence for models that tie simple electoral systems (First-Past-The-Post and List Proportional Representation) to the number and sizes of parties and government duration. Chapter appendices present derivations of these models and other more technical issues of interest to researchers.

Table of Contents:
1: How Electoral Systems Matter Part I. Rules and Tools 2: The Origins and Components of Electoral Systems 3: Electoral Systems -- Simple and Complex 4: The Number and Balance of Parties 5: Deviation from Proportional Deviation, and Proportionality Profiles 6: Openness to Small Parties: The Micro-Mega Rule and the Seat Product Part II. The Duvergerian Macro-Agenda: How Simple Electoral Systems Affect Party Sizes and Politics 7: The Duvergerian Agenda 8: The Number of Seat-Winning Parties and the Largest Seat Share 9: The Seat Shares of All Parties, and the Effective Number of Parties 10: The Mean Duration of Cabinets 11: How to Simplify Complex Electoral Systems 12: Size and Politics 13: The Law of Minority Attrition 14: The Institutional Impact on Votes and Deviation from PR Part III. Implications and Broader Agenda 15: Thresholds of Representation and the Number of Pertinent Electoral Parties 16: Seat Allocation in Federal Second Chambers and the Assemblies of the European Union 17: What Can We Expect From Electoral Laws? Bibliography

About the Author :
Born in Tartu, Estonia, 1933, Rein Taagepera became a war refugee in 1944, completed Estonian-language grade school in Germany and French-language high school in Morocco. He has B.A.Sc in engineering physics and M.A. in physics (University of Toronto), and Ph.D. in solid state physics and M.A. in international relations (University of Delaware. After 6 years of industrial research at DuPont Co., he has taught political science at University of California, Irvine since 1970 and also at University of Tartu, Estonia since 1992. He ran third in Estonia's presidential elections 1992, and was in 2001 the founding chair of a political party that later won the elections. He has over 100 research articles in electoral studies and comparative politics, Baltic area studies, Finno-Ugric linguistics, and physics. His books include Seats and Votes (with Matthew Shugart), The Baltic States: Years of Dependence 1940-1990 (with Romuald Misiunas), and The Finno-Ugric Republics and the Russian State.