The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications

This book examines the basic mechanisms behind the modernization of demographic behaviour. The author has marshalled an impressive amount of statistical material relating to 67 countries, half of them less developed, and covering the period 1720-1984. The whole sweep of western demographic experience is dealt with comprehensively and impartially, and though technically sophisticated, the book also covers issues of interpretation and analysis. The author shows how mortality decrease necessarily precedes fertility decline and how so-called exceptions are simply false exceptions; how the decline of fertility is dependent on important and manifold social transformations; and reveals the strong connections between international migration and the course of demographic transition. Chesnais demonstrates that less developed countries are following the same general patterns as MDCs and argues that the theory of demographic transition must include the effect of population changes on the economic progress of society.

Table of Contents:
Introduction: the "theory" of demographic transition - its conciseness, diversity and flexibility - problems, methods and the field of enquiry. Part 1 Stages of demographic transition: demographic transition - the current position; the decline in mortality; the fertility decline; divergence and concordance; the migration transition; the notion of the cycle in demography - is post-transition fertility cyclical? Part 2 Forms of demographic transition: the types of demographic transition; chronology and typology of the ageing of populations; the transitional multiplier of population; industrial revolution and demographic revolution in the 18th century - the French-English paradox; European transitions from Malthus to Pincus; contemporary transitions - the strength of the model; revolution of mental attitudes and demographic revolution. Part 3 Economic implications of demographic transition: economic stagnation and neo-Malthusianism - two falsely opposed models; economic progress and demographic transition in poor countries - 30 years of experience, 1950-1980; secular growth in the industrial world; economic breakthrough in poor countries. Appendices: Crude birth-rates; total fertility rates; crude death-rates; infant mortality rates; real product.

Review :
`elegantly translated by Elizabeth and Philip Kreager ... the verdict on The Demographic Transition must be that it is an impressive landmark on the road to an uncertain destination ... Chesnais' Demographic Transition is an impressive achievement which will form an invaluable work of reference' John Landers, Times Literary Supplement `The assembly of data for 67 populations, including many 1dc's, is clearly a valuable contribution ... This book will be useful as a reference volume and a supplementary text on a central subject in the study of population. Its translation into English is very welcome.' European Journal of Population 'It is difficult to overstate the value of this massively documented and intellectually challenging book ... His emphasis on the need to reconstruct the routes of cultural diffusion as an aid to understanding the geography of the transition is likely to prove particularly rewarding. Chesnais provides a powerful and seemingly persuasive counter to those who see rapid population growth as a more or less persistent force for ill.' N.L. Tranter, University of Stirling, Economic History Society 1995 `Has been translated very successfully from French ... where data are available, it provides rich time series data on the trends it covers ... It is certainly a rich source and will retain this reference status for many years to come ... This is an impressive work.' The Economic Journal `It has been translated very successfully from French...where data are available, it provides rich time series data on the trends it covers. It is certainly a rich source and will retain this reference status for many years to come. This is an impressive work.' The Economic Journal