Elements of Deterrence: Strategy, Technology, and Complexity in Global Politics

Global politics in the twenty-first century is complicated by dense economic interdependence, rapid technological innovation, and fierce security competition. How should governments formulate grand strategy in this complex environment? Many strategists look to deterrence as the answer, but how much can we expect of deterrence? Classical deterrence theory developed in response to the nuclear threats of the Cold War, but strategists since have applied it to a variety of threats in the land, sea, air, space, and cyber domains. If war is the continuation of politics by other means, then the diversity of technologies in modern war suggests a diversity of political effects. Some military forces or postures are most useful for "winning" various kinds of wars. Others are effective for "warning" adversaries of consequences or demonstrating resolve. Still others may accomplish these goals at lower political cost, or with greater strategic stability. Deterrence is not a simple strategy, therefore, but a complex relationship between many ends and many means. This book presents findings from a decade-long research program on "cross-domain deterrence." Through a series of theoretical and empirical studies, we explore fundamental trade-offs that have always been implicit in practice but have yet to be synthesized into a general theory of deterrence. Gartzke and Lindsay integrate newly revised and updated versions of published work alongside new work into a holistic framework for understanding how deterrence works--or fails to work--in multiple domains. Their findings show that in deterrence, all good things do not go together.

Table of Contents:
Biographies Acknowledgements List of Figures and Tables Ch. 1 Introduction: Revisiting Deterrence Theory I The Means and Ends of Deterrence Ch. 2 What is Deterrence? Ch. 3 Deterrence is Not (Just) One Thing Ch. 4 Politics by (Many) Other Means II Theoretical Problems in the Cyber Domain Ch. 5 Cyberspace is Unsuitable for the Strategy of War Ch. 6 Cyberspace is Ideal for the Strategy of Deception Ch. 7 Cyber Deception Versus Nuclear Deterrence III Empirical Evidence in Multiple Domains Ch. 8 Land: Presence and Credibility with Koji Kagotani Ch. 9 Sea: Maneuver and Uncertainty Ch. 10 Air: Automation and Cost with James Walsh Ch. 11 Space: Intelligence and Stability with Bryan Early IV Strategic Implications of Complexity Ch. 12 Trade: Asymmetry and Multipolarity with Oliver Westerwinter Ch. 13 Cyber: Complements and Substitutes with Nadiya Kostyuk Ch. 14 Gray Zone: Ambiguity and Escalation with J. Andres Gannon and Peter Schram Ch. 15 Conclusion: Summary and Implications Bibliography

About the Author :
Erik Gartzke is Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies (cPASS) at the University of California, San Diego. Jon R. Lindsay is Associate Professor at the School of Cybersecurity and Privacy and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Review :
This is a very important book. It deserves serious consideration by strategic thinkers, military planners, international relations theorists, and scholars in the field of security studies. If you wonder what, if anything, new can be said about deterrence theory, think again. Remarkably, Gartzke and Lindsey have broken new ground in a field that has already been heavily plowed. Elements of Deterrence challenges much of the received wisdom on the subject, both theoretically and empirically. The end result is a much deeper and more nuanced understanding of how complex deterrence relationships operate in the emerging political and technological environment that will govern interstate relations for the foreseeable future. In a brilliant analysis of a world where grand strategy matters again, Gartzke and Lindsay show how deterrence strategy bundles means and ends and demonstrate how different means are specialized to achieve different ends. Integrated deterrence is impossible, they find, because all good things do not go together. Deterrence, they conclude, is the process of managing tensions among conflicting goals and complex instruments. Consequently, there is no 'right' way to combine means without a clear sense of preferred political ends. Their analysis is a must read for anyone interested in the big strategic challenges of the twenty-first century and the hard choices, not only among means but also among objectives, that lie ahead. As policymakers and strategists grapple with the multifaceted challenges of an increasingly complex environment, Elements of Deterrence offers novel and invaluable insights. The book's detailed theoretical and empirical studies shed light on the delicate balance between "winning" conflicts, warning adversaries of costly repercussions, and demonstrating resolve in light of grand challenges. Critically, the authors uncover that deterrence, as a strategy, necessitates making tough choices as not all favorable outcomes can coexist. In a time when global security requires innovative and adaptive approaches, this book serves as an indispensable resource for understanding the evolving nature of deterrence and its vital role in shaping the future of international relations. Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay are among the world's leading scholars on emerging technology and international security, and, in this brilliant new book, they force us to rethink the fundamentals of deterrence theory for the 21st century. This is the authoritative scholarly work on 'integrated deterrence' and should be required reading for government officials and scholars alike. In Elements of Deterrence, Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay provide a highly original and comprehensive theory of deterrence for the 21st century. They force scholars to recognize that the field's understanding of deterrence has been heavily shaped by the Cold War-era nuclear competition. In fact, they argue deterrence is a broader basket of policies and objectives that includes coercion, defense, accommodation, and deception. They argue that there are tradeoffs among these goals. Elements of Deterrence is a sophisticated analysis and assessment of this venerable strategy, updated to reflect the contemporary realities of runaway technological change and the complexities and uncertainties of the international environment...Recommended for larger college libraries and specialized international affairs collections. Generally, the book is also a treasure trove of insight into what different military technologies are good for. The authors illuminate their arguments with examples and illustrations and conduct several empirical tests throughout the book based primarily on quantitative methods. In particular, the parts about cyber tools, and how they are well suited for deception strategies, are excellent.