On the Cusp: From Population Boom to Bust

For much of its history, human population growth increased at a glacial pace. The demographic rate only soared about 200 years ago, climaxing between the years 1950 and 2000. In that 50-year span, the population grew more than it had in the previous 5,000 years. Though these raw numbers are impressive, they conceal the fact that the growth rate of population topped out in the 1960s and may be negative later this century. The population boom is approaching a population bust, despite the current world population of seven billion people. In On the Cusp, economist Charles Pearson explores the meaning of this population trend from the arc of demographic growth to decline. He reviews Thomas Malthus's famous, but mistaken, 1798 argument that human population would exceed the earth's carrying capacity. That argument has resurfaced, however, in the current environmental era and under the threat of global warming. Analyzing population trends through dual lenses -- demography and economics -- Pearson examines the potential opportunities and challenges of population decline and aging. Aging is almost universal and will accelerate. Mitigating untoward economic effects may require policies to boost fertility (which has plunged), increase immigration, and work longer, harder, and smarter -- as well as undertake pension and health care reform, all of which have hidden costs. The writing is rigorous but not technical, and is complemented by a helpful set of figures and tables. Sharp, bold, and occasionally funny, Pearson's research has thought-provoking implications for future public policies. He ends his analysis with a modestly hopeful conclusion, noting that both the rich and the poor face a new demographic order. General readers and students alike will find On the Cusp an informative and engaging read.

About the Author :
Charles S. Pearson is Professor Emeritus, International Economics, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC

Review :
"This is a refreshingly comprehensive and inspiring summary of the state of the art in population and development. It is not limited to conventional wisdom but covers exciting new fields relating to human capital and redefining age. I will make it compulsory reading for my students." Wolfgang Lutz, Founding Director, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital and Director, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria "On The Cusp is an excellent book. It is clear with a strong and well-delivered message and a solid empirical base. On a subject where theory is often either glossed over or oversimplified, the exceptionally strong theoretical underpinning of On The Cusp is to be applauded." Stuart Basten, Associate Professor in Social Policy, University of Oxford "Pearson, an economist and research director at the School of Advanced International Studies with a passion for writing popular economics books, surveys the demography and economics literature on this topic in a precise yet engaging manner...The research has implications for future public policies, and the book's ending is hopeful...perhaps even Panglossian...a total reversal from the Malthusian gloom-and-doom scenarios that continue to influence thinking on this topic to this day." J. Bhattacharya, Iowa State University