Rethink (Chapter 6): Understand What Can (and Can't) Be Predicted

Read the following excerpt from Rethink, Chapter 6: Understand What Can (and Can’t) Be Predicted.   In the course of rethinking, you have learned how to identify your “whats,” determine their value and performance level, and figure out their connections to one another. The next step is to train the lens of predictability on your stakeholders--customers, suppliers, and partners--to anticipate their responses to the plug-and-play changes you want to make.   One of the more dramatic--and potentially traumatic--examples of “what” unpredictability occurred some years ago, when Chrysler decided to examine the vendors supplying parts for its Jeep Cherokee. The analysis of the company’s Manufacture-Product “what” started with the V-8 engine assembled by Chrysler, focusing first on the rollerlifter valve. The valve was manufactured by Eaton, which, in turn, contracted with a neighboring factory to provide unfinished metal castings. That factory, it turned out, relied on yet another supplier for the special clay used in making the castings.   When the Chrysler team contacted the owner of the clay company, he dropped a bad-news bombshell. Selling clay to the castings maker was a losing proposition, he told them, so he was switching into a new business--kitty litter. Had he mentioned his plans to Chrysler’s castings supplier? Uh, no. Suppose Chrysler had never surveyed its Jeep Cherokee Manufacture-Product “what.” A for-want-of-a- nail scenario could have played out: no clay, no castings, no roller-lifter valve, no V-8 engine, no Jeep Cherokee.   Predicting how a “what” will behave under a new set of circumstances can be as difficult as it is essential. A case in point: the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.   To continue reading, purchase and download now.

About the Author :
Ric Merrifield spent nearly 15 years in various consulting roles helping organizations define and achieve their goals. Since joining Microsoft, Merrifield has spent more than 10,000 hours as a business architect and has filed twelve patent applications all with the goal of helping companies rethink their operating models and get out of the “how” trap described in the pages of this book.   Merrifield recently coauthored “The Next Revolution in Productivity,” a June 2008 Harvard Business Review article focused on case studies that highlight needs of the organization and the opportunity to rethink business operating models before making major technology changes. Merrifield is an alumnus of Lakeside School in Seattle and Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.