In Line Behind a Billion People: How Scarcity Will Define China's Ascent in the Next Decade

Nearly everything you know about China is wrong! Yes, within a decade, China will have the world’s largest economy. But that is the least important thing to know about China. In this enlightening book , two of the world’s leading China experts turn the conventional wisdom on its head, showing why China’s economic growth will constrain rather than empower it. Pioneering political analyst Damien Ma and global economist Bill Adams reveal why, having 35 years of ferocious economic growth, China’s future will be shaped by the same fundamental reality that has shaped it for millennia: scarcity. Ma and Adams drill deep into Chinese society, illuminating all the scarcities that will limit its power and progress. Beyond scarcities of natural resources and public goods, they illuminate China’s persistent poverties of individual freedoms, cultural appeal, and ideological legitimacy — and the corrosive loss of values and beliefs amongst a growing middle class shackled by a parochial and inflexible political system. Everyone knows “the 21st century is China’s to lose” — but, as with so many things that “everyone knows,” that’s just wrong. Ma and Adams get beyond cheerleading and fearmongering to tell the complex truth about China today. This is a truth you need to hear — whether you’re an investor, business decision-maker, policymaker, or citizen.

Table of Contents:
Introduction    1 Economic scarcity    6 1. Resources: While supplies last    6 2. Food: Malthus on the Yangtze    6 3. Labor: Where did all the migrants go?    7 Social scarcity    7 4. Welfare: Socialism with Chinese    .actually no, not socialism at all    7 5. Education: Give me equality    but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua    7 6. Housing: Home is where the wallet is    8 Political scarcity    8 7. Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit    8 8. Values: What would Confucius do?    9 9. Freedom: Keep on rockin’ in the firewalled world    9 Part I  Economic Scarcity    13 Chapter 1  Resources: While supplies last    15 The Panda Boom    19 It’s the CPI, stupid    20 Smashing the iron rice bowl    22 Under the mattress: Savings gluttony    24 The world ain’t so flat, or, good neighbors near and far    26 Bamboo consumption continued    28 Land: So much yet so little    29 Ownership society with Chinese characteristics    30 Legacy problems    32 Energy: From industry to transport and residential    34 Import dependence as Achilles’ heel    39 Water    41 Thirsty industry    42 H2O politics    46 Chapter 2  Food: Malthus on the Yangtze    49 Feeding one-fifth of humanity    53 A diet for a land of plenty    56 The meat of the problem    56 Hot and bothered    .and thirsty    61 Rise of the machines?    63 From Happy Meals to deadly dinners    66 Astronauts get Tang, taikonauts get grass-fed beef    69 Chapter 3  Labor: Where did all the migrants go?    75 Socialist employers’ paradise    77 ...Becomes socialist employers’ paradise, lost    80 Migrants came, saw, and some are saying see ya later    81 Westward they go    84 Workers with attitude    87 Warmer, cuddlier policy for migrants    88 School of hard knocks    90 What happens when your key economic input shrinks?    91 Cashing out on the demographic dividend: an “uh oh” moment?    93 Public policy: A dash of creativity and wisdom needed    94 When 150 million workers unite    97 Part II Social Scarcity    99 Chapter 4  Welfare: Socialism with Chinese    actually no, not socialism at all    101 Dismantling the welfare system    104 ...And stitching it back together    112 From youth bulge to geriatric bulge    117 Mo’ bling, mo’ honeys    125 Serving the people    128 Chapter 5  Education: Give me equality    but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua    131 A thought experiment: Turkmenbashi for a day    131 No, seriously, there is a real thing called urban bias    132 The social equalizer that isn’t    135 From urban bias to urban household bias    142 Turn on, tune in, and study abroad: Life at the top    144 Running out of levers to pull    147 Chapter 6 Housing: Home is where the wallet is    151 Phat cribs and fatter wallets    153 An urban middle class is born    156 Jobs all around    157 Fat pancakes from the sky: the rich man’s boom    159 So happy together    160 When virtues become flaws    161 “I love you    .after you’ve closed on that two-bedroom”    162 On the outside looking in    165 Socialist property rights with Chinese characteristics    167 Revenge of the capitalists    169 No taxation without representation    .but with corruption    170 Squeezed    173 Part III Political Scarcity    .177 Chapter 7 Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit    179 A young nation-state    182 E pluribus mishmash    185 What comes after a revolution?    189 Forging the Deng Xiaoping consensus    190 New slogans, same consensus    193 The second identity crisis    195 Nationalism to the rescue (sort of)    198 Virtue is as virtuous does    200 Confucius as cultural export    204 Searching for a distinctly Chinese paradigm?    205 Chapter 8 Values: What would Confucius do?    209 Qunar (or where to)?    212 Software upgrades    213 Pursuit of happiness    215 Separate but unequal    219 Governing post-materialist China: The “what have you done for me lately” problem    223 It’s (mostly) sunny in Canton    224 Swatting flies    225 China pushes back on values    227 China the exceptional?    232 Chapter 9 Freedom: Keep on rockin’ in the firewalled world    237 A decade of harmony?    242 Stability Inc.    244 The “average Zhou” pushes back    249 From 100 flowers to 100 million weibos    254 Fast and furious    .and deadly    255 Give me PM 2.5 or give me death    260 Coloring outside the lines    264 Conclusion    267 All your (economic) base are belong to us    267 Embracing change: the basecase    270 Growth without abundance    271 A “New Deal” with Chinese characteristics    274 Chinese governance 4.0    277 Baby steps    279 What if the Chinese dream is deferred?    283 Endnotes    287 Index    319  

About the Author :
Damien Ma (Chicago, Illinois) is currently Fellow at The Paulson Institute, where he focuses on investment and policy programs, as well as the Institute’s research and think tank activities. Previously, Ma was a lead China analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and advisory firm. He specialized in analyzing the intersection between Chinese policies and markets, with a particular focus on energy and commodities, industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and social and Internet policies. Before joining Eurasia Group, Ma was a manager of publications at the U.S.-China Business Council in Washington, D.C. He writes regularly for The Atlantic Monthly Online and has been published widely, including in Foreign Affairs, The New Republic, Slate, and Foreign Policy. Ma is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.   William Adams (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) is currently Senior International Economist for The PNC Financial Group. At PNC, Adams serves as spokesman on global economic issues and is responsible for its forecasts for China, other major emerging markets, and the Eurozone. Formerly resident economist at The Conference Board China Center, Adams has published extensively on China’s economic and financial reforms. He is a center associate and advisory board member of the University of Pittsburgh Asia Studies Center and a member of the economics advisory board of the Duquesne University Palumbo Donahue School of Business.