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Home > Sciences & Environment > Earth sciences > Geology, geomorphology and the lithosphere > Economic geology > Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs(Vol 14 Computer Methods in the Geosciences)
Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs(Vol 14 Computer Methods in the Geosciences)

Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs(Vol 14 Computer Methods in the Geosciences)


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About the Book

The petroleum industry is enduring difficult financial times because of the continuing depressed price of crude oil on the world market. This has caused major corporate restructuring and reductions in staff throughout the industry. Because oil exploration must now be done with fewer people under more difficult economic constraints, it is essential that the most effective and efficient procedures be used. "Computing Risks for Oil Prospects" describes how prospect risk assessment - predicting the distribution of financial gains or losses that may result from the drilling of an exploration well - can be done using objective procedures implemented on personal computers. The procedures include analyses of historical data, interpretation of geological and geophysical data, and financial calculations to yield a spectrum of the possible consequences of decisions. All aspects of petroleum risk assessment are covered, from evaluating regional resources, through delineating an individual prospect, to calculation of the financial consequences of alternative decisions and their possible results. The bottom lines are given both in terms of the probable volumes of oil that may be discovered and the expected monetary returns. Statistical procedures are linked with computer mapping and interpretation algorithms, which feed their results directly into routines for financial analysis. The programmes in the included library of computer programmes are tailored to fit seamlessly together, and are designed for ease and simplicity of operation. The two diskettes supplied are IBM compatible. Full information on loading is given in appendix A - Software Installation. Risk 1 diskette contains data files and executable and Risk 2 diskette contains only executables. The authors contend that the explorationist who develops a prospect should be involved in every facet of its analysis, including risk and financial assessments. This book provides the tools necessary for these tasks.

Table of Contents:
Introduction - getting things rolling. Part 1 The challenge of risk assessment: the nature of exploration; regional hydrocarbon endowment. Part 2 Field size distributions: estimating "Q"; oil field populations; statistics of frequency distributions; caution - future discoveries. Part 3 Success, sequence and gambler's ruin: success ratios and dry hole probabilities. Part 4 Estimating discovery size from prospect size: statistical correlations between properties; estimating volumes from seismic maps. Part 5 Outcome probabilities and success ratios: geology and drilling results. Part 6 Modelling prospects: appeal of the simulation approach; steps in Monte Carlo simulation. Part 7 Mapping properties and uncertainties: computer contouring; how contour maps are made. Part 8 Discriminating discoveries and dry holes: combining geological variables; exploring magyarstan target area; the intermediate stage; the mature stage. Part 9 Forecasting cash flow for a prospect: financial overview; discounted net cash flow analysis. Part 10 The worth of money: a dry hole versus a discovery. Part 11 RATs, decision tables and trees: RATs link outcomes with risk; how RATs treat information; constructing decision tables; decision trees; overview and a look to the future. Part 12 Bringing it together: risking the Roskoff prospect; Roskoff prospect financial analysis; some final points.

Review :
...an informative and well-written book...For the geologist, engineer or manager who knows about exploration geology but not about probability, economic analysis, and decision-making techniques, I highly recommend this book. Geotimes Michael R. Walls ...I found this book a highly readable, carefully constructed, painstakingly systematic presentation of a viewpoint that may be shared by many...the book is a significant and long overdue addition to the petroleum literature. I would add Computing Risk for Oil Prospects to a short list of books worth owning and rereading. The price tag is justified by the inclusion of the software and the data. Computers & Geosciences James A. Murtha


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9780080418902
  • Publisher: Elsevier Science & Technology
  • Publisher Imprint: Pergamon
  • Binding: Hardback
  • Height: 241 mm
  • Language: English
  • Returnable: N
  • Sub Title: Principles and Programs
  • Weight: 930 gr
  • Width: 159 mm
  • ISBN-10: 0080418902
  • Publisher Date: 22 Nov 1995
  • Binding: Hardback
  • Height: 241 mm
  • Language: English
  • Returnable: N
  • Series Title: Vol 14 Computer Methods in the Geosciences
  • Weight: 930 gr
  • Width: 159 mm


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Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs(Vol 14 Computer Methods in the Geosciences)
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