China's Gray Zone Actions in the Philippines - Chinese Attempts to Break U.S. Alliance and Establish De Facto Control of South China Sea, Circumvent International Order In Favor of Its Own Alternative

The United States Government lacks an effective strategy for protecting national strategic interests in the Republic of the Philippines from the threat of China's actions. Several of these interests are threatened at a significant level of risk due to China's effective use of the instruments of national power-Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME). China is attempting to break the alliance between the U.S. and the Philippines, to establish de facto control of the South China Sea, and to circumvent the international order in favor of its own alternative order. These actions are coordinated to achieve hegemony in the region that some consider to be the global economic center of gravity. This study analyzes how the U.S., China, and the Philippines have used ways and means to coordinate the elements of national power in support of achieving national objectives, and also assesses the risk to U.S. national strategic interests in the Philippines.This compilation also includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION * Chapter Introduction * Research Question * Secondary Questions * Assumptions * Definition of Terms * Limitations * Scope and Delimitations * Significance of Study * Chapter Summary and Conclusion * CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW * Chapter Introduction * Section One: USG Official Documents * The National Security Strategy of the United States * Various National-Level Documents from the Pentagon * Department of State Documents * Reports to Congress * Various Operational-Level Documents * Section Two: PRC Official Documents * Chinese Government White Papers * PRC Position Papers * China State-Run Media * Section Three: GRP Official Documents * The Philippine National Security Policy * Philippine Department of National Defense Documents * Section Four: Written Analysis * Chapter Summary and Conclusion * CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY * Chapter Introduction * Definition of Strategy * Determining U.S. National Interests * Strategy Evaluation * Assessing Risk * Strengths of the Method * Limitations of the Method * Chapter Summary and Conclusion * CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS * Chapter Introduction * The Goals of the Three Counties * United States Ways and Means * China Ways and Means * The Philippines Ways and Means by Exception * Risk Analysis * Chapter Summary and Conclusion * CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS * Conclusions * Where do the Goals of the Three Countries Align? * Where do the Goals of the Three Countries Conflict? * What Risk is the U.S. Assuming with the Current Strategy? * Recommendations * Recommended U.S. Strategy * Other Recommendations * Chapter Summary and ConclusionU.S. national interests in the Philippines are significant. America and the Philippines have been formal allies since 1951 when the two countries signed a Mutual Defense Treaty. In 2016 the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) passed a constitutional challenge in the Philippine Supreme Court that gives the U.S. an improved ability to protect its ally through increased access for U.S. rotational forces. The sovereignty of the Philippines, to include disputed islands, are essential to protect the free flow of trade and maintain regional stability within the parameters of international law. More than 220,000 U.S. citizens are living in the Philippines6 making it the 4th largest overseas American population in the world behind Mexico, Canada, and Germany. The U.S. requires an effective strategy to protect these national interests from all potential threats.