About the Book
Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end - and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. In "How Terrorism Ends", Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda. This book answers questions such as: How long do terrorist campaigns last? When does targeting the leadership finish a group? When do negotiations lead to the end? Under what conditions do groups transition to other forms of violence, such as insurgency or civil war? How and when do they succeed or fail, and then disappear?
Examining a wide range of historical examples - including the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, and various Palestinian groups - Cronin identifies the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out, including decapitation (catching or killing the leader), negotiation, repression, and implosion. "How Terrorism Ends" is the only comprehensive book on its subject and a rarity among all the books on terrorism - at once practical, optimistic, rigorous, and historical.
Table of Contents:
Acknowledgments xi Abbreviations xv Introduction 1 The Evolution of Terrorism as a Strategic Threat 3 A Word about Scope and Terms 6 The Conceptual Framework 7 Case Selection 8 Overview of Chapters 9 Chapter One: Decapitation: Catching or Killing the Leader 14 What Decapitation Means 16 The Arrest of Top Leaders 17 Abimael Guzm?n and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) 18 Abdullah ?calan and the Kurdistan Workers? Party 20 Mickey McKevitt and the Real Irish Republican Army 22 Shoko Asahara and Aum Shinrikyo 23 Assassination or "Targeted Killing" 24 The Philippines? Abu Sayyaf 27 Russia and Chechen Leaders 28 Israel's "Targeted Killings" 29 How Decapitation Ends Terrorism 31 Chapter Two: Negotiations: Transition toward a Legitimate Political Process 35 Why Governments Negotiate 36 Why Groups Negotiate 39 Case Studies of Negotiations 42 The Northern Ireland Peace Process 42 Analysis of the Agreement 47 The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process 48 Terrorism and the Talks 55 The LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers) 57 Analysis of the Failure 61 Promising and Unpromising Circumstances for Negotiations 62 Stalemate 63 Strong Leadership 64 Sponsors 65 Suicide Campaigns 66 Splintering 67 Spoilers 69 Setting and Story 70 How Negotiations End Terrorism 71 Chapter Three: Success: Achieving the Objective 73 What Does "Success" Mean? 74 Survival 75 Achievement of Objectives 77 Perpetuating Terrorism: Tactical or "Process" Goals 77 Ending Terrorism: Strategic or "Outcome" Goals 80 Cases of Success 82 Irgun Zvai Le'umi (Irgun or IZL) 82 The African National Congress and Umkhonto 85 Other Notable Cases 89 How Success Ends Terrorism 91 Conclusions 92 Chapter Four: Failure: Imploding, Provoking a Backlash, or Becoming Marginalized 94 Implosion: Mistakes, Burnout, and Collapse 95 Failure to Pass the Cause to the Next Generation 95 Generational Patterns: Left-Wing Groups in the 1970s 97 Generational Patterns: Right-Wing Groups in the 1990s 98 Infighting and Fractionalization 100 Loss of Operational Control 102 Accepting an Exit 103 Marginalization: Diminishing Popular Support 104 The Ideology Becomes Irrelevant 105 Loss of Contact with "the People" 107 Targeting Errors and Backlash 108 How Failure Ends Terrorism 110 Chapter Five: Repression: Crushing Terrorism with Force 115 Analyzing the Strategies of Terrorism 117 Case Studies of Repression 122 Russia and Narodnaya Volya 123 Peru and Sendero Luminoso 125 Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers? Party 128 Uruguay and the Tupamaros 129 Russia and Chechnya 131 Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, 1928-1966 137 How Repression Ends Terrorism 141 Chapter Six: Reorientation: Transitioning to Another Modus Operandi 146 Criminality and Terrorism 148 Colombia and the FARC 149 The Philippines and Abu Sayyaf 152 Insurgency and Terrorism 153 Algeria and the GIA 155 Terrorism as a Catalyst for Major War 157 India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri Separatist Groups 159 Outdated Paradigms, Practical Implications 162 How War Ends Terrorism 166 Chapter Seven: How Al-Qaeda Ends: The Relevance and Irrelevance of History 167 Is Al-Qaeda Unique? 168 Resilient Structure 169 Methods of Radicalization and Recruitment 171 Means of Support 174 Means of Communication 175 The Relevance and Irrelevance of History for Al-Qaeda: Applying the Framework 177 Decapitation: Capturing or Killing the Leaders 177 Negotiations: Talking to Al-Qaeda or Its Associates 179 Success: Achieving Al-Qaeda's Objectives 182 Failure through Implosion 183 Failure through Diminishment of Popular Support 187 Repression: Crushing Al-Qaeda with Force 190 Reorientation: Transitioning to Other Means 191 Al-Qaeda's Decline and Demise 193 Conclusion 197 Understanding How Terrorism Ends 201 Appendix: Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Campaigns 207 Notes 223 Selected Bibliography 283 Index 297
About the Author :
Audrey Kurth Cronin is professor of strategy at the U.S. National War College in Washington, DC, and senior associate in the Changing Character of War program at the University of Oxford. She is the author of "Ending Terrorism: Lessons for Defeating al-Qaeda" and the coauthor of "Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy".
Review :
Cronin makes a significant contribution to the scholarly literature on terrorism and counterterrorism. While other scholars have written extensively on the motivations, methods, and means of terrorism, Cronin is the first to look seriously and historically at how terrorist campaigns come to an end. -- Choice While the causes of terrorism have long been subject to avid research, Audrey Kurth Cronin's cogent and thoughtful text responds to the curious dearth of works attending to its ends. This is clearly a timely project, coming as policy-makers and academics are increasingly seeking alternative ways to think about and practice terrorism... [The] case-studies are easily the most gripping and readable sections of the text. Cronin never flattens for the sake of parsimonious argumentation, rather allowing the specificity of each case to enlighten us for the continuities and differences at work. As a consequence, they are rich in fascinating detail and her derived conclusions are sophisticated... Such insights should rightly guarantee the text a wide readership... The timeliness, clarity and simplicity of the project contained in How Terrorism Ends should commend it to readers of all descriptions. Above all, Cronin's sensible and well-argued call for 'smarter'(pg. 193) strategies for dealing with terrorism today is one that deserves to be widely heard. -- Nicholas Michelsen, International Affairs By writing How Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin ... has provided a service to everyone with an interest in counterterrorism by providing much-needed perspective... Cronin's analysis is textured, challenging and insightful. And, as with all good analyses, the assertions at the heart of the argument prompt further lines of inquiry for scholars and practitioners to explore... How Terrorism Ends shines a light on the key issues that relate to an al-Qa'eda threat that is becoming increasingly diffuse, diverse and devolved--and, even with the benefit of Cronin's perspective, difficult to predict. -- Christopher Mackmurdo, Global Policy In a new book with the blunt title How Terrorism Ends, Cronin ... has filled that gap by collecting and analyzing as much information as possible about the demise of past terrorist campaigns and organizations. Eschewing sociological or psychological speculation about why groups opt to use terrorism, she focuses instead on the strategic consequences of their actions. The result is a refreshingly sober treatment of the subject. -- Justin Vogt, The National Serious work on this subject has begun to emerge with Audrey Kurth Cronin's splendid recent study, How Terrorism Ends, providing a strong example. -- Richard English, International Affairs I applaud the outstanding analysis in this book. By meticulously selecting, recording, and examining terrorism, Cronin has provided an excellent foundation for the planners and implementers of counterterrorism. -- Terence Parker, Michigan War Studies Review The fact that Cronin's book raises more questions than it answers may ultimately be a positive, because she aims to provide a wide ranging analysis of a subject in its early phases that can serve as a springboard to future studies. How Terrorism Ends is, therefore, a worthwhile book for both academics and policymakers. If a reader agrees with some points and finds others lacking, but ultimately considers how to grapple with terrorism from a new perspective, Cronin will have succeeded in her aims. -- Peter J. P. Krause, Journal of Strategic Studies Cronin has written an important book on how terrorism ends. Her analysis is equally illuminating for its insights into why people engage in terrorism in the first place. -- Max Abrahms, Middle East Quarterly [A] broad variety of approaches benefit from Cronin's work. It is hard to imagine a thoughtful reader who won't be provoked by something in this book. It is still harder to imagine one who won't fine his or her work enriched by it. -- Thomas Maddux, H-Diplo ISSF How Terrorism Ends is comprehensive, historical, and academically rigorous. Terror campaigns might seem endless, but as Cronin has so accurately depicted, terror campaigns always end and usually not in the favor of the terrorists organization. I highly recommend the book to anyone with an interest in understanding terrorist organizations and the political and military means to defeat them. -- Ken Miller, Military Review
